Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 11:27 AM
Original source
BIS — Research & Publications
MacroLab briefing generated by AI for informational purposes. Original reporting by BIS — Research & Publications. Not financial advice.
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Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements studied how bond markets react when economic data comes out. Specifically, they looked at US Treasury futures (contracts that let investors bet on future bond prices) and measured how much prices moved in response to unexpected economic news between 2014 and 2023. They discovered that when economists disagree sharply about what an economic number will be before it's released, the bond market reacts much more dramatically when the actual number comes out. The bigger the disagreement among forecasters beforehand, the bigger the price swing afterward.
Bond yields (the interest rates that governments and companies pay to borrow money) are the foundation for many other interest rates in the economy. When bond markets move sharply, it affects mortgage rates, car loan rates, credit card rates, and business borrowing costs. This research shows that volatility in bonds isn't just about the economic news itself, but about how uncertain or divided expert opinion is before the news arrives. If you're shopping for a mortgage or your company is planning to borrow, knowing that forecaster disagreement can trigger sudden market moves means you might face unexpected swings in borrowing costs. It also means markets can be jumpier and less predictable when experts don't see eye to eye.
Watch whether forecasters' disagreement on major economic releases (jobs reports, inflation data, GDP growth) gets bigger or smaller over time. If disagreement is rising, you should expect bigger bond market swings when those numbers come out. Also pay attention to actual bond price movements on data release days: if they're becoming more extreme or more frequent, that would signal this effect is intensifying. Conversely, if economists start agreeing more with each other, bond markets should calm down on announcement days.