What you haven't seen yet
Developments that move the US economy (policy in the pipeline, Fed plumbing, supply chains, global spillovers) before they reach the front pages. If Bloomberg already has it, we don't.
Key economic trackers show steady US growth heading into June jobs report
Several broad measures of US economic activity, which economists watch to judge whether the economy is expanding or shrinking in real time, continued to rise through May 2025, according to analysis published by Econbrowser. The closely watched monthly jobs report, due shortly, is expected by forecasters polled by Bloomberg to show about 114,000 new jobs added, roughly the same pace as in May. That level of job growth is modest but positive, meaning the economy is still creating work rather than cutting it, which tends to support consumer spending and keep pressure on the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) as it decides whether to raise or lower borrowing costs. If the actual number comes in close to expectations, it would reinforce the picture of an economy growing slowly but steadily, with no sharp acceleration or sudden pullback.
Econbrowser ·8h agoUS customs agency to demand more shipping data on packages sent by mail
U.S. Customs and Border Protection is preparing a new rule that would require far more detailed information about goods arriving in the United States through the postal system, such as packages sent from overseas sellers directly to American homes. The agency estimates the rule could bring in more than $100 million per year in additional duties (the taxes charged on imported goods), because better data would make it harder for shipments to slip through without being properly taxed. However, officials acknowledged the stricter requirements could also discourage some foreign sellers from shipping to the United States at all, which would mean fewer choices and potentially higher prices for American shoppers who buy goods from overseas. The rule is part of a broader effort to close a gap that critics say has allowed many low-cost imports, particularly from Asian e-commerce platforms, to avoid the tariffs (import taxes) that domestic retailers and their suppliers must effectively pay.
Supply Chain Dive ·12h agoItalian banks ramp up interest rate hedging as rates rise, study finds
A new study published by CEPR found that Italian banks actively increase their use of financial hedging tools (contracts that offset losses when interest rates move against them) precisely when interest rates are rising and the risk of losses is highest. This behavior matters because, as the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank showed, banks that fail to protect themselves against rising rates can suffer sudden, severe losses on the bonds and loans they hold, which can threaten the bank's survival. When banks stay protected, they remain more willing and able to keep lending to businesses and households, which helps keep credit flowing through the broader economy. The findings suggest banks are not passive about risk but instead dial their protection up and down depending on conditions, which is a reassuring sign for financial stability.
VoxEU — CEPR ·1d agoHigh government debt fears push up borrowing costs for everyone, study finds
Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements published a study examining what happens across an economy when investors grow worried that a government may struggle to manage its debts. The researchers found that these worries show up first in government bond yields (the interest rate a government pays to borrow money), and then spread outward, raising borrowing costs for businesses and households too, which can slow hiring, investment, and spending. This matters because when governments borrow more expensively, banks and companies tend to follow, meaning the interest rate on your mortgage, car loan, or business credit line can rise even if a central bank like the Federal Reserve has not changed its policy rate. The study used daily financial market data from multiple countries to trace exactly how these debt fear episodes travel through the financial system and squeeze real economic activity.
BIS — Research & Publications ·1d agoHigh government debt makes interest rate policy less powerful, study finds
A new research paper from the Bank for International Settlements, written by Christopher Johns, Aaron Mehrotra, and Fabrizio Zampolli, studied European countries between 2001 and 2020 and found that how much debt a government carries changes how well central bank interest rate decisions actually work in the real economy. When a country owes a great deal of money, rate increases or cuts by a central bank (the institution that sets borrowing costs to control inflation and growth) have a weaker or different effect on prices and economic output than they would in a lower-debt country. The maturity structure of that debt (meaning whether the government borrowed money on short terms of a few years or long terms of many decades) also shapes the outcome, because short-term debt forces governments to refinance more often at whatever the new interest rate happens to be, which feeds back into public spending and the broader economy. For ordinary people, this matters because it means that in heavily indebted countries, the main tool central banks use to fight inflation or support growth may simply be less reliable, potentially leading to longer periods of high prices or sluggish job markets before policy takes hold.
BIS — Research & Publications ·1d agoUS fired its top statistics official, and uncertainty spiked
The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency that produces the official jobs and inflation numbers that guide economic policy, was dismissed in August 2025 amid claims that the agency's data had been manipulated. Researchers at CEPR, an economics research network, found that the firing caused a sharp rise in economic policy uncertainty, meaning businesses and policymakers became noticeably less confident about what the economy is actually doing and what decisions to make next. That matters because the Federal Reserve, employers, and investors all rely on those official numbers to set interest rates, plan hiring, and price goods, so if people stop trusting the data, decisions get made on shakier ground. Historically, higher uncertainty of this kind has been linked to slower growth, reduced hiring, and tighter credit conditions (meaning banks lend less freely and borrowing becomes harder).
VoxEU — CEPR ·2d agoEarly estimate shows US inflation falling in June, but not by much
An early forecast of the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred way of measuring how fast prices are rising across the economy, suggests that overall inflation fell in June 2025, based on data available as of June 26. However, so-called core inflation, meaning price increases when you strip out food and energy costs because those tend to jump around a lot, barely moved lower. This distinction matters because the Fed watches core inflation most closely when deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates, since it gives a cleaner picture of whether prices are broadly under control. If core inflation stays stubbornly high, the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates soon, which means borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards would stay elevated for longer.
Econbrowser ·3d agoUS economy grew slightly slower in early 2026 than first reported
New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that when you average together two different ways of measuring the size of the US economy, output grew at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, compared to the headline figure of 1.6% that gets most of the attention. The two measures are GDP (which adds up everything the country spends and produces) and GDI (which adds up all the income earned in the economy instead), and in theory they should match, but in practice they differ because of data gaps and reporting lags. When growth comes in a little softer than the main number suggests, it can influence how the Federal Reserve (the US central bank, which sets borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards) thinks about whether the economy needs support or restraint. A slightly weaker growth picture makes it modestly more likely the Fed would consider lowering interest rates, which would make borrowing cheaper for ordinary households and businesses.
Econbrowser ·3d agoUN agency counts about 80 mines blocking the Strait of Hormuz oil route
The International Maritime Organization, a United Nations shipping body, estimated on Friday that roughly 80 underwater explosive mines are sitting in the historic shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which about one fifth of the world's oil supply travels by tanker. The presence of so many mines means it could take a long time to sweep the passage clean and restore normal shipping, since each mine must be located and carefully neutralized one by one. Any prolonged disruption to oil moving through Hormuz tends to push global oil prices higher, because the supply reaching refineries shrinks while demand stays the same. Higher oil prices feed through quickly into what consumers pay for gasoline, heating fuel, and anything that is manufactured or shipped using energy, so the situation has direct consequences for household budgets and broader inflation.
gCaptain — Maritime ·3d agoOman warns Europe that ships may soon pay tolls to pass through Hormuz
Oman has told European officials that the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and gas travels, will not return to its pre-war rules and that ships passing through may have to pay fees. If tolls are imposed, shipping companies would almost certainly add those extra costs to the price of transporting oil, natural gas, and other goods, which would then push up prices for consumers at the pump and in stores. Higher energy costs feed into the price of nearly everything, from groceries to manufactured goods, making this a potential source of fresh inflation (meaning a broad rise in everyday prices across the economy). The situation is still developing, but even the prospect of new fees on one of the world's most critical trade routes is enough to make energy markets and governments nervous.
gCaptain — Maritime ·3d agoOver 1,200 logistics workers laid off as small trucking firms go bankrupt
More than 1,200 warehouse and freight workers have recently lost their jobs as several small trucking and logistics companies filed for bankruptcy, according to FreightWaves. When freight carriers (the businesses that move goods by truck and store them in warehouses) shut down, there is less capacity in the system to move products from factories and ports to stores. That can slow deliveries, push up shipping costs for retailers, and eventually contribute to higher prices for everyday goods. A weaker network of smaller carriers also puts more pressure on larger companies and can reduce competition, which tends to keep shipping costs elevated for longer.
FreightWaves ·3d agoStudy: How did poorer nations hold up when the Fed sharply raised rates in 2022 and 2023?
Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve examined how economies in the developing world, places like Brazil, India, Mexico, and Turkey, weathered the period from 2022 to 2023 when the U.S. central bank raised its benchmark interest rate (the rate banks charge each other overnight, which ripples through the entire economy) from near zero to above 5 percent, one of the fastest increases in decades. When U.S. rates rise that sharply, investors tend to pull money out of developing countries and move it into dollar assets, which can cause those countries to see their currencies lose value, their own borrowing costs rise, and their economies slow down. The study matters for American readers because stress in developing economies can feed back into U.S. financial markets, tightening the availability of credit (loans and borrowing) here at home and affecting the earnings of U.S. companies that sell goods or services abroad. Understanding how resilient, or fragile, those economies proved to be helps policymakers judge how much room the Fed has to raise or lower rates in the future without triggering a broader global downturn.
NY Fed — Liberty Street Economics ·3d agoUS power grid has less backup electricity as coal and gas plants break down more
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, the body that oversees the stability of the US power grid, reported that coal plants produced 39.8 terawatt-hours (a terawatt-hour is roughly the amount of electricity a large city uses in a month) less energy than expected in 2025 due to unplanned breakdowns, while gas plants lost another 19.1 terawatt-hours the same way. This means the grid has a shrinking cushion of backup power, the spare generating capacity kept on hand to prevent blackouts when demand spikes during heat waves or cold snaps. When that cushion gets thin, grid operators must sometimes buy emergency power at very high prices or risk outages, and those higher costs tend to flow through to household and business electricity bills. Persistent reliability problems can also push policymakers and utilities to accelerate spending on new generation and grid upgrades, costs that are typically passed on to ratepayers over time.
Utility Dive ·4d ago3 Tankers With 5 Million Barrels Leave Hormuz After US-Iran Deal
Three oil tankers carrying a combined 5 million barrels of crude oil began leaving the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, with two of the ships headed to buyers in Asia, according to shipping data. The departures follow a temporary agreement between the United States and Iran that has allowed vessels previously stuck in the Persian Gulf to resume their journeys, adding more oil to world markets. When the supply of oil increases, prices tend to fall, which can lower the cost of gasoline, diesel, and goods that depend on fuel to be produced and transported. Cheaper energy also tends to ease pressure on central banks to keep interest rates (the cost of borrowing money) high, which can be good news for consumers and businesses carrying loans.
gCaptain — Maritime ·5d agoSupertanker rented for Persian Gulf oil run at 9 times the normal rate
One of the world's largest supertanker operators has provisionally booked a vessel to carry oil from the Persian Gulf to India at roughly nine times the standard market rate, a sign that available ships in the region are in very short supply. When it costs dramatically more to move oil by sea, energy companies face higher costs to get crude (unrefined oil) to refineries, and those extra costs tend to get passed along as higher fuel and goods prices for ordinary consumers. The Persian Gulf is the export route for a large share of the world's oil, so shipping bottlenecks there can ripple outward into broader inflation (meaning a general rise in the prices of everyday things). If shipping costs stay elevated, central banks may find it harder to bring inflation down, which could keep interest rates higher for longer and make borrowing more expensive for households and businesses.
gCaptain — Maritime ·5d agoGlobal Shipping Body Orders Ships to Hold Position in Persian Gulf Crisis
The International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency that oversees global shipping rules, has ordered thousands of cargo ships currently stuck in the Persian Gulf to remain where they are and wait for instructions, while it begins evacuating the seafarers stranded aboard them. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, is one of the most important passages in world trade, carrying a large share of the oil, natural gas, and goods that move between Asia, the Middle East, and the rest of the world. When ships cannot move through it freely, the goods they carry are delayed, which means store shelves take longer to restock and businesses pay more to ship products, both of which push prices higher for ordinary consumers. A prolonged disruption could slow economic growth, lift inflation (the general rise in prices across the economy), and add pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, making mortgages, car loans, and credit cards more expensive.
gCaptain — Maritime ·5d agoITS Logistics says freight costs are set to rise sharply in 2026
ITS Logistics, a major shipping and freight management company, is warning businesses that planned to keep their shipping budgets flat in 2026 that they are likely to face significantly higher costs than expected. The company points to three converging pressures: truck drivers leaving the industry faster than new ones are joining, rising fuel costs, and businesses holding leaner inventories (meaning warehouses have less stock on hand, so goods need to be moved more frequently and urgently). When the supply of available trucks and drivers tightens while demand stays steady or grows, freight rates (the prices companies pay to move goods) go up, and those higher costs are typically passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices on everyday goods.
FreightWaves ·5d agoUS Workers Are Getting the Smallest Share of National Income Since WWII
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the labor share of income, meaning the portion of everything the US economy produces that gets paid out to workers as wages and salaries, has fallen to its lowest point since World War II. This matters because when workers claim a smaller slice of the economic pie, it means prices or productivity gains are outpacing pay, so even if wages are rising in dollar terms, they are not keeping up with what the economy is actually generating. For everyday people, a falling labor share tends to mean weaker real purchasing power over time, since paychecks grow more slowly than the overall economy. The New York Fed flagged this as a concern tied to inflation dynamics, because when businesses hold down wages relative to their output, it can make it harder for workers to get ahead even during periods of low unemployment.
NY Fed — Liberty Street Economics ·5d agoUS cancels work visas for 20,000 Mexican truck drivers since April 2025
Since April 2025, the United States has revoked the work visas of roughly 20,000 Mexican truck drivers, according to Mexican industry officials, sharply reducing the number of drivers legally allowed to haul freight across the border. The crackdown centers on cabotage rules, which are laws that prohibit foreign drivers from picking up and dropping off cargo entirely within another country's borders, and authorities have been pulling visas from drivers accused of breaking those rules. With fewer trucks and drivers available to move goods between the two countries, shipping companies will likely need to pay more to get cargo transported, and those higher freight costs tend to get passed along to businesses and eventually to consumers as higher prices on imported goods. The United States and Mexico are among each other's largest trading partners, so disruptions to cross-border trucking can ripple quickly through supply chains for food, auto parts, electronics, and many other everyday products.
FreightWaves ·6d agoSteel and aluminum makers must prove US expansion to get lower import taxes
The US government has set strict new record-keeping and investment requirements for Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum producers that want to qualify for reduced Section 232 tariffs (taxes the US charges on imported metals, originally imposed for national security reasons). To get the lower tax rate, companies must commit to verifiable plans to expand production capacity inside the United States and keep detailed, traceable paperwork proving they have done so. This matters because tariffs on raw materials like steel and aluminum raise costs for the American manufacturers who buy those metals to make cars, appliances, construction materials, and countless other goods, and higher input costs often get passed along to consumers as higher prices. If fewer foreign producers can meet the tough documentation rules and qualify for the reduced rate, more of them will pay the full tariff, which could push up prices on metal and on the finished products made from it.
Supply Chain Dive ·6d agoA tariff shock in Oct 2025 spread chaos through crypto and stablecoins
On October 10, 2025, the announcement of a possible additional 100 percent tariff (a tax on imported goods) on Chinese products triggered a sharp selloff across stocks, government bonds, and digital assets including cryptocurrencies. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that the price crash was then transmitted and made worse through synthetic stablecoins, which are a type of digital token designed to hold a steady value but that rely on complex financial arrangements rather than real cash reserves to do so. When those stablecoins came under stress, liquidity (the ease with which things can be bought or sold quickly) dried up on major trading platforms, meaning panic in one corner of digital finance began spreading outward in ways that could affect broader credit conditions and borrowing costs. This matters for everyday life because instability in these newer financial instruments can ripple into the traditional financial system, potentially tightening the availability of loans or pushing up the cost of borrowing for ordinary households and businesses.
NY Fed — Liberty Street Economics ·6d agoChinese export surge is pushing down prices in Europe, new research finds
A new study from the Centre for Economic Policy Research finds that China has dramatically increased its exports of manufactured and technology goods since 2020, mainly because Chinese consumers and businesses at home are spending less, pushing factories to sell more abroad instead. For everyday Europeans, the flood of cheaper Chinese imports is pulling down the prices they pay in shops, which sounds welcome but also puts pressure on European manufacturers who cannot easily compete on price, potentially threatening factory jobs. The research also found that the euro, Europe's shared currency, faces downward pressure as the trade balance shifts, meaning Europeans may eventually pay more for goods imported from outside China, such as oil priced in US dollars. Governments and central banks in Europe are watching closely because cheaper imports complicate decisions about interest rates, since falling prices can reduce the urgency to cut rates but weaker industries may need support.
VoxEU — CEPR ·Jun 22Explosion at Qatar's Biggest Gas Plant Kills 13 During Restart
An explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, one of the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG, meaning natural gas that has been chilled into liquid form so it can be shipped by sea) facilities in the world, killed 13 workers and injured dozens more on the day crews were restarting operations that had been shut down following an Iranian attack in March. Qatar is one of the biggest suppliers of LNG to Europe and Asia, so any prolonged outage at Ras Laffan reduces the global supply of natural gas available on world markets. When the supply of energy falls while demand stays the same, prices rise, and higher natural gas prices feed through into higher electricity bills, higher heating costs, and higher prices for goods that take energy to produce. If energy costs climb significantly, that can also add to inflation pressures in the United States, which imports relatively little LNG itself but competes in a global energy market where prices are set by worldwide supply and demand.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 22Oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz rise after US-Iran ceasefire deal
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply, picked up on Friday after the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. Gulf oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, moved quickly to prepare higher export volumes through the strait. More oil reaching global markets tends to push energy prices down, which matters because cheaper oil lowers the cost of fuel, shipping, and manufacturing, meaning consumers can eventually see lower prices on everyday goods from groceries to electronics. However, Iran has set conditions for allowing ships to transit the waterway, and if those terms create delays or uncertainty, the supply increase may be smaller than expected, keeping energy costs elevated.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 19LA port expects over 900,000 shipping containers in June and July
The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest cargo entry point in the United States, is on track to handle more than 900,000 container units in each of June and July 2025, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka, following strong volume in May. This surge is happening because importers are rushing to bring goods into the country while a temporary pause in the highest US tariffs (taxes charged on imported goods) gives them a brief window of lower costs. When more containers move through ports, store shelves are better stocked and upward pressure on the prices Americans pay for electronics, clothing, and household goods tends to ease. If this flow continues, it could help cool some of the inflation that higher import taxes had been threatening to push up.
Supply Chain Dive ·Jun 18CBO explains how tax and Medicaid cuts could shrink the US workforce
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the nonpartisan federal agency that scores the costs and economic effects of legislation, released a working paper explaining how it calculated the impact of the 2025 Reconciliation Act on how many Americans choose to work. The law changes individual income tax rules and cuts Medicaid (the government health insurance program for lower-income Americans), and the CBO found these two changes together are likely to reduce the number of hours Americans work in total, a measure economists call labor supply. Fewer working hours across the economy can slow economic growth, reduce household incomes, and put upward pressure on wages in some sectors as employers compete for a smaller pool of available workers. Understanding how the CBO reached these estimates matters because its projections directly shape how Congress and the White House plan budgets, set tax rates, and decide how much the government can afford to spend.
CBO Publications ·Jun 18Trade uncertainty cuts cross-border investment more than tariffs themselves do
New research published by CEPR finds that both higher tariffs (taxes one country charges on goods arriving from another) and unpredictable trade rules reduce the flow of foreign direct investment, meaning money that companies spend building factories, offices, or supply chains in other countries. The study finds that uncertainty about what the rules will be in the future does more lasting damage to these investment flows than the tariffs themselves, because businesses are reluctant to commit billions of dollars to a foreign market when they cannot predict the trading conditions they will face. When cross-border investment falls, it tends to slow the construction of new facilities and the adoption of better technology, which over time can mean fewer jobs, weaker productivity, and slower economic growth. The findings carry particular weight now, given the sharp rise in tariffs and the frequent, unpredictable shifts in trade policy seen across major economies in recent years.
VoxEU — CEPR ·Jun 17Iranian oil tankers resume shipments after two-month Gulf blockade ends
Several tankers linked to Iran have reappeared on AIS (Automatic Identification System, the satellite tracking network that monitors ship locations) and are moving through the Gulf of Oman again, signaling that Iranian crude oil exports are restarting after a two-month naval blockade shut them down. Iran holds some of the largest oil reserves in the world, so when its exports are cut off, global oil supplies tighten and prices tend to rise, and when they resume, the added supply can push prices back down. Lower oil prices matter directly to American households because crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, and cheaper fuel also reduces shipping and manufacturing costs, which can slow the pace of broader price increases across the economy. A sustained return of Iranian oil to global markets could also narrow the United States trade deficit (the gap between what the country spends on imports versus what it earns from exports) by reducing the dollar amount the country spends importing energy.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 17Importers are rushing shipments into Los Angeles earlier than usual
Retailers and importers are flooding the Port of Los Angeles with goods ahead of schedule, trying to stock up before fuel costs rise further and before U.S. trade policy shifts again. This practice, known as frontloading (ordering and receiving large amounts of goods earlier than you normally would), compresses the usual peak shipping season into an earlier window than consumers or logistics companies typically expect. When importers race to bring in products all at once, it can strain ports and trucking networks, which often pushes up the cost of moving goods and can eventually translate into higher prices on store shelves. Strong consumer spending is helping drive the surge, meaning Americans are still buying at a pace that makes it worth the extra effort and cost for businesses to ship aggressively now.
FreightWaves ·Jun 17Trump is rewriting customs rules, and shippers need to prepare now
The Trump administration is changing how imported goods are processed and cleared at the border, requiring companies that bring products into the United States to review who is legally responsible for those shipments and to track their supply chains more closely than before. Customs rules determine how quickly goods can enter the country and what paperwork and fees are required, so when those rules change, delays at the border become more likely and the cost of moving goods from overseas factories to store shelves can rise. Higher logistics costs tend to flow through to the prices consumers pay, and timing disruptions can leave retailers short of inventory or manufacturers waiting on parts. Supply chain experts say businesses that do not act soon risk being caught off guard when the new requirements take effect.
Supply Chain Dive ·Jun 16Qatar says it can restart gas exports within a month after Iran strikes
QatarEnergy told Reuters on Tuesday that it is ready to resume production of liquefied natural gas (natural gas that has been supercooled into liquid form so it can be shipped by tanker) at its Ras Laffan facility in Qatar, and expects to reach full output at undamaged parts of the plant within one month of restarting. The announcement follows Iranian strikes that had disrupted operations at one of the world's most important sources of exported natural gas. Qatar supplies a large share of the LNG that Europe and Asia rely on to heat homes, generate electricity, and run factories, so any extended outage there tends to push energy prices higher globally. A faster than expected return to full supply should help ease pressure on energy costs, which in turn reduces one of the forces that has been pushing consumer prices upward in recent months.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 16Maersk Keeps Cargo Limits and Extra Fees on Persian Gulf Shipping
Maersk, one of the world's largest shipping companies, is maintaining strict limits on what cargo it will carry through the Persian Gulf and continuing to charge emergency fees on top of normal shipping rates, even as some officials have suggested the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow waterway through which roughly one fifth of the world's oil and many other goods travel) is becoming safer to use. The restrictions mean that goods moving through this route cost more to ship, and those higher costs are typically passed along the supply chain until they show up as higher prices for consumers on products ranging from electronics to clothing to fuel. When major shipping companies like Maersk keep surcharges in place, it signals that businesses moving goods around the world still see real risk in the region, which can slow trade and keep upward pressure on prices even if headlines suggest the situation is improving.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 16Federal highway fund is nearly out of money, Congress faces a deadline
The Congressional Budget Office presented findings in 2026 showing that the Highway Trust Fund, the federal account that pays for road and bridge construction and repairs across the United States, is running very low on money and risks running out entirely without action from Congress. The fund is fed mainly by the federal gas tax, which has not been raised since 1993 and collects less revenue in real terms every year as cars become more fuel efficient and some drivers switch to electric vehicles. If the fund runs dry, federal payments to states for road projects would slow or stop, meaning construction contracts could be cancelled, workers in construction and related industries could lose jobs, and aging roads and bridges would go unrepaired. Congress would then face a choice between raising taxes, cutting road spending, or finding a new way to charge drivers for road use, such as a fee based on miles driven rather than gas purchased.
CBO Publications ·Jun 16Shipping costs on Asia to US routes set for big swings in coming weeks
The cost to ship a standard large container (a forty-foot metal box carrying imported goods) from Asia to the US West Coast held steady at $4,836 in the most recent week, according to freight pricing service Freightos, but several forces are about to push rates around sharply. Businesses that import goods are rushing to book shipments early to avoid upcoming fuel surcharges (added fees tied to the cost of running cargo ships) and price increases from Asian manufacturers, creating an unusually early surge in demand known as a peak season. When shipping costs rise, importers typically pass those extra costs on to consumers through higher prices on goods like electronics, clothing, and furniture, so what happens to these rates over the next few weeks matters for everyday prices in American stores. Analysts say supply chains, meaning the whole system of moving goods from factories to store shelves, are unlikely to fully return to normal for several months yet.
FreightWaves ·Jun 16U.S. Military Is Secretly Moving Gulf Oil Ship to Ship to Keep Exports Flowing
The U.S. military has quietly overseen dozens of covert oil transfers between ships in the Gulf, using aerial drones, water drones, and helicopters to guide oil tankers safely to their destinations, according to gCaptain. These operations are designed to keep Gulf oil reaching global markets despite threats in the region that make normal shipping routes risky. When oil shipments are disrupted or slowed, global oil supplies tighten, meaning less crude is available on world markets, which pushes energy prices up and can raise the cost of gasoline, heating fuel, and goods that are transported by truck or plane. If these covert operations were to fail or become publicly contested, the resulting supply disruption could add upward pressure on oil prices at a time when energy costs are already a significant driver of inflation in the United States and elsewhere.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 16Study finds bond market reacts more sharply to economic news when forecasters disagree
Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements published a study finding that when economists are unusually divided in their predictions before a major data release, such as a jobs report or inflation figure, US government bond yields (the interest rate the government pays to borrow money) swing more sharply once the actual number comes out. The size of those swings also grows when there is more uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next. This matters for ordinary people because government bond yields act as a benchmark that shapes the interest rates on mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing, so bigger and more unpredictable swings in yields can make the cost of borrowing harder to plan around. The findings suggest that in periods when experts widely disagree about the economy, financial conditions can become more volatile and sensitive to each new piece of economic data.
BIS — Research & Publications ·Jun 16US Transportation Dept to build tool tracking goods as they move across the country
The US Department of Transportation announced it will launch the American Supply Chain Sovereignty Initiative, a program that includes a public visibility dashboard showing where cargo is moving through ports, warehouses, and freight networks in real time. The goal is to connect major cargo hubs with businesses like retailers and shipping companies so everyone in the chain can see where goods are and where bottlenecks are forming. When companies can track inventory (the stock of goods they have on hand or on the way) more accurately, they tend to order more efficiently, which can reduce the kind of shortages and overstocking that drove prices sharply higher after 2020. Better logistics visibility can also lower freight costs over time, which feeds into the prices consumers pay for everyday goods.
Supply Chain Dive ·Jun 15Shippers want proof before sailing through Hormuz after US-Iran deal
A reported agreement between the United States and Iran is meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply passes, but shipowners and cargo traders say they need far more detail before they will risk sending vessels through it again. The caution is understandable given months of failed promises and dangerous conditions in the region. If ships continue to avoid the strait, oil supplies reaching world markets stay constrained, which tends to push fuel prices higher, and higher fuel prices feed into the cost of transporting almost every kind of good, meaning consumers can end up paying more for everyday products. A clear, verified reopening would matter well beyond the shipping industry, since cheaper and more reliable oil flows help keep a lid on the broader inflation that affects household budgets and business costs worldwide.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 15Freight shipments expected to rebound in second half of 2025, data firm says
Cass Information Systems, a company that processes billions of dollars in freight invoices and publishes closely watched shipping data, released figures on Monday showing that the volume of goods moving by truck is likely to recover in the second half of 2025. The report also found that truckload linehaul rates (the base price carriers charge to move a full trailer from one point to another, not counting fuel or other fees) jumped again in May. This matters because freight volume is a direct measure of how much the economy is actually producing and moving: when more goods are being shipped, factories are running, stores are restocking, and trucking companies tend to hire more drivers. A sustained recovery in shipping volumes could also support business investment in new trucks and warehouses, which feeds into broader job creation and economic output.
FreightWaves ·Jun 15Small business hiring is slowing even as overall job growth picks up
According to new data from ADP, a payroll processing company that tracks employment across millions of U.S. businesses, hiring at the smallest firms (those with 1 to 19 employees) has been growing more slowly, and those firms now make up a smaller share of total private employment than before. This matters because small businesses collectively employ a very large portion of American workers, so when their hiring cools, it can be an early sign that the broader job market is losing steam even if the headline numbers look healthy. A labor market where only large companies are adding jobs tends to give workers less bargaining power over wages, since big employers face less competition for workers from lots of small rivals. Economists watch this kind of shift closely because it can signal whether the economy is heading for a slowdown, which in turn influences decisions by the Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank) on whether to raise or lower interest rates.
Econbrowser ·Jun 15Japan and UK top the list of foreign holders of US government debt
New data published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve shows which foreign countries hold the most US Treasury securities (bonds that the US government sells to borrow money), with Japan and the United Kingdom ranking among the largest overseas holders as of early 2026. Most US government debt is actually held domestically by American investors, banks, and the Federal Reserve itself, but foreign ownership still runs into the trillions of dollars and plays a quiet but powerful role in everyday economic life. When foreign governments and investors buy US Treasuries, they are essentially lending money to the United States, which helps keep US borrowing costs lower than they would otherwise be, meaning cheaper mortgages, car loans, and credit card rates for ordinary Americans. If major foreign holders were ever to sell large amounts of that debt, demand for the dollar could weaken and US interest rates could rise, making borrowing more expensive across the economy.
St. Louis Fed — FRED Blog ·Jun 15Global banking overseer flags gaps in how currency trades are settled safely
The Bank for International Settlements, the Switzerland-based institution that coordinates policy among the world's central banks, published its June 2026 quarterly review warning that foreign exchange markets still carry meaningful settlement risk, meaning the danger that one party in a currency trade sends money but never receives what was promised in return. The report also found that central banks are adjusting how they lend money to financial institutions, responding to shifts in how much cash those institutions need to borrow to function day to day. These issues matter to ordinary people because when the plumbing of global currency markets works poorly, it can make dollars and other currencies harder and more expensive to borrow, which tends to push up interest rates on mortgages, business loans, and credit cards. The BIS concluded that while most currency trades now use systems that reduce this danger, more reforms are needed before the risk is fully under control.
BIS — Research & Publications ·Jun 15New index tracks global trade policy shifts going back to 2008
Researchers have built a monthly index called the Trade Policy Activity Index that measures how much trade policy has changed across 197 countries every month since the 2008 financial crisis. The index shows two clear spikes in trade policy activity: one during 2018 to 2019, when the United States and China imposed heavy tariffs (taxes on imported goods) on each other, and another in 2025. When trade policy becomes more active and unpredictable, businesses face higher costs for imported materials, which can push up the prices consumers pay and slow economic growth, so having a reliable way to track these shifts helps explain why inflation rises or falls and why hiring and investment sometimes stall.
VoxEU — CEPR ·Jun 14Texas summit debates self-driving trucks and cross-border freight jobs
Industry leaders gathered in Laredo, Texas this week to debate whether self-driving freight trucks should be allowed to operate along major shipping corridors between the United States and Mexico, and whether American truckers holding B-1 visas (work permits that allow U.S. drivers to haul goods short distances into Mexico) could take on a larger role in cross-border trade. The discussions matter because trucking is one of the biggest links in the supply chain that moves goods from Mexican factories to American store shelves, and decisions about who or what drives those trucks directly affect both the jobs of hundreds of thousands of professional drivers and the cost of shipping goods across the border. If self-driving trucks are widely adopted, companies could move freight more cheaply, which might eventually lower prices for consumers, but could also reduce demand for human drivers and push wages down in the trucking industry. At the same event, moving company Cadogan Tate announced an expansion into Phoenix, and Japanese tire maker Toyo revealed plans for a 357 million dollar solar manufacturing facility in Houston, both signs that businesses continue investing heavily in the Sun Belt region despite uncertainty over trade policy.
FreightWaves ·Jun 14Long Beach port had its third busiest May ever as imports jumped 40%
The Port of Long Beach, one of the busiest cargo entry points in the United States, processed 842,030 shipping containers in May 2025, making it the third highest volume ever recorded for that month and a sharp recovery from earlier in the year when imports slowed sharply after new tariffs (taxes that the government charges on goods brought in from other countries) took effect. The surge means a much larger volume of foreign made goods is now flowing into the country, which tends to push consumer prices up because retailers and businesses often pass their higher import costs on to shoppers. A flood of imports arriving all at once can also create pressure along the entire supply chain, from truck drivers and warehouse workers to rail freight carriers, potentially affecting jobs and wages in those industries. If import volumes stay elevated, the Federal Reserve (the central bank that sets US interest rates) may view rising goods prices as a reason to keep borrowing costs higher for longer, which would affect everything from mortgage rates to credit card bills.
gCaptain — Maritime ·Jun 12US wants to check shipping containers early to get goods to stores faster
The Trump administration announced a plan to have the Department of Transportation pre-screen import shipping containers before they arrive at US ports, rather than inspecting them only after they dock. The goal is to reduce the time goods spend waiting in ports and moving through the supply chain (the full journey a product takes from factory to store shelf). When goods move faster and more predictably, shipping costs tend to fall, and those savings can eventually lower the prices consumers pay for imported products. Delays and bottlenecks in ports have been a notable driver of higher consumer prices in recent years, so smoother container flow could provide some modest relief at the checkout.
FreightWaves ·Jun 12LA port expects 7% drop in shipping containers amid trade tensions
The Port of Los Angeles approved a $3.4 billion budget for fiscal year 2026 to 2027 while forecasting that the number of containers it handles will fall 7%, from roughly 10 million to 9.3 million standard container units this year. The Port of Los Angeles and its neighbor Long Beach together form the busiest entry point for imported goods into the United States, so a drop in container volumes there means fewer products arriving from overseas, particularly from Asia. When fewer goods enter the country, store shelves can thin out and retailers often raise prices because supply is tighter, which can affect the cost of everyday items from electronics to clothing. This decline is largely driven by tariffs (taxes that the U.S. government charges on imported goods), which have made shipping products into the country more expensive and pushed many companies to order less from foreign suppliers.
FreightWaves ·Jun 12Shippers are rushing cargo early to beat new tariffs and rising costs
Ocean shipping companies and importers are moving large amounts of goods earlier than usual, trying to get cargo delivered before new tariffs (taxes charged on imported products) take effect and before fuel costs rise further, according to Mike Short, President of Global Forwarding at logistics giant C.H. Robinson Worldwide. This practice, called frontloading, means warehouses are filling up now with products that would normally arrive months later. For ordinary shoppers, this timing shift matters because when retailers stock up all at once to avoid higher import taxes, the extra costs they pay can eventually show up as higher prices on store shelves. It also means shipping lanes and ports face an unusually busy stretch right now, which can push freight rates higher and tighten the flow of goods later in the year when those stockpiles run low.
Supply Chain Dive ·Jun 12Study finds bank takeovers during crises can squeeze lending to borrowers
Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements published a study examining what happens to everyday lending after regulators arrange an emergency sale of a failing bank to a healthier one, using a major Spanish bank collapse as their case study. When the acquiring bank took over, it reshaped which borrowers received loans and how much credit was available, meaning some businesses and households that relied on the failing bank found it harder to borrow afterward. This matters because when credit (the flow of loans from banks to people and businesses) tightens, companies may cut back on hiring or investment, and consumers may struggle to finance purchases or cover short-term needs. The findings are among the first to use detailed, individual loan records to show how these government-arranged bank rescues affect the real economy, not just the banks themselves.
BIS — Research & Publications ·Jun 12CBO scores defense bill at new spending and revenue levels for 2027
The Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan federal agency that estimates what legislation will cost, released a formal cost analysis of H.R. 8800, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027, addressed to Representative Mike Rogers. The bill sets the budget for the United States military, and the CBO's letter lays out how much it would add to federal spending and how it would affect government revenues (meaning taxes and fees collected). Defense bills of this size matter to everyday life because more federal spending, if not matched by higher revenues, widens the budget deficit (the gap between what the government spends and what it takes in), which can push up interest rates as the government borrows more, making mortgages, car loans, and credit cards more expensive for ordinary Americans.
CBO Publications ·Jun 11US customs agency may refund tariff overcharges by July, if courts allow it
U.S. Customs and Border Protection may begin issuing refunds by the end of July to importers who overpaid tariffs (taxes charged on goods brought into the country) on shipments whose customs cases have been fully closed and settled. The federal government is expected to appeal the court rulings that required these refunds, which could delay or block payments depending on how judges rule. For businesses that import goods, a refund would help recover costs they often passed on to customers through higher prices. If the government wins its appeal and refunds are blocked, those extra costs stay locked in, keeping pressure on prices for imported products.
Supply Chain Dive ·Jun 11Global bank regulators study fixes to bonds meant to stop bank failures
The Bank for International Settlements, the organization that sets global banking standards, published research examining how a type of bank-issued bond called Additional Tier 1 capital, known as AT1, could be redesigned to work better as a financial safety net. AT1 bonds are meant to absorb losses at a struggling bank before it actually fails, protecting depositors and the broader financial system, but the BIS found that in practice they often fail to do this job because the rules triggering their loss-absorption kick in too late and bank managers have too much discretion over when and whether to use them. This matters to ordinary people because when banks can absorb losses on their own through instruments like AT1, they are less likely to need government bailouts, less likely to suddenly stop lending, and more likely to keep credit, meaning loans for homes, cars, and businesses, flowing steadily through the economy. If regulators act on this research and tighten the rules around AT1 bonds, banks could become more resilient, which tends to support stable borrowing costs and a steadier supply of loans over time.
BIS — Research & Publications ·Jun 11Fed Governor Barr warns that easing bank rules during good times raises crash risk
Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr gave a speech at American University in Washington DC on June 6, 2026, arguing that loosening financial regulations while the economy and markets are doing well is a particularly dangerous moment to do so. His concern centers on bank capital requirements (the cushion of money banks must hold in reserve to absorb losses before they fail), which if reduced could leave the banking system more fragile heading into any future downturn. When banks hold less of a safety cushion, they tend to tighten lending sharply during a crisis, meaning ordinary people and businesses find it harder and more expensive to borrow exactly when they need credit most. Barr's warning matters for everyday economic life because a weakened banking system can turn a mild slowdown into a deep recession, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business credit across the board.
BIS — Central Bank Speeches ·Jun 9Study finds money market funds become riskier during asset price bubbles
Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements studied 3,500 money market funds (investment pools where individuals, businesses, and institutions park cash for short periods, expecting it to be safe and stable) across the United States from January 2004 to December 2022, and found that these funds pose a greater risk to the broader financial system during asset price bubbles (periods when the prices of stocks, bonds, or other assets rise far above what their underlying value justifies). The study found that the specific characteristics of individual funds, such as their size, what assets they hold, and how quickly investors can withdraw their money, meaningfully affect how much danger each fund adds to the overall system during those stress periods. This matters for ordinary people because when money market funds run into trouble, the short-term lending markets that businesses rely on to cover everyday expenses like payroll can seize up, which can tighten credit conditions (making it harder and more expensive for households and companies to borrow), slow hiring, and ripple outward into the broader economy.
BIS — Research & Publications ·Jun 9Why inflation faded fast in some countries but lingered for years in others
A new research paper from CEPR, published in 2025, studied why the global burst of inflation that followed the COVID pandemic did not die down at the same speed in every country, even though the initial shock hit everyone at once. The key finding is that countries where people and businesses had long histories of expecting prices to rise quickly were much more likely to see that inflation become self-reinforcing, meaning workers demanded higher wages to keep up, and companies passed rising energy costs straight through to consumers, which then pushed prices even higher in a cycle that was hard to stop. In countries where central banks had spent decades keeping inflation low and predictable, those wage and price spirals were much weaker because households and employers trusted that inflation would come back down, so they did not bake high inflation into their wage deals or pricing decisions. This matters for everyday life because persistent inflation forces central banks to keep interest rates (the cost of borrowing money) higher for longer, which raises mortgage payments, credit card rates, and business loan costs, and can slow hiring across the whole economy.
VoxEU — CEPR ·Jun 7Credit Suisse collapse exposed gaps in the global plan for handling big bank failures
A new study from the Bank for International Settlements examines what happened in March 2023 when Swiss authorities rescued Credit Suisse, finding that regulators chose not to follow the official playbook that had been built over more than a decade for handling the collapse of a major global bank. That playbook, known as a bail-in framework, was designed so that a failing bank's investors and bondholders (rather than taxpayers) would absorb the losses and keep the bank functioning. By bypassing that plan, regulators raised questions about whether the rules will actually be followed the next time a large bank runs into trouble. When investors doubt that the rules are credible, they demand higher returns to lend money to big banks, which raises those banks' borrowing costs and can ripple outward into higher interest rates and tighter credit for businesses and households.
BIS — Research & Publications ·Jun 5Remote work is one reason fewer young people can find jobs, Fed says
Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published findings showing that the rise of remote work since the pandemic helps explain about 64 percent of the increase in unemployment among younger, less experienced workers. The core problem is practical: when managers and employees are not in the same physical space, it becomes much harder to train and mentor someone who is new to a job, so companies have grown more reluctant to take a chance on hiring inexperienced workers at all. That reluctance matters for the broader economy because when young people struggle to enter the workforce, fewer people are earning and spending, which can slow overall economic growth and push up what economists call the natural unemployment rate (the baseline level of joblessness that exists even in a healthy economy, meaning unemployment may stay higher for longer even when conditions are otherwise good). For young people specifically, missing early career experience can hold down their wages and job prospects for years to come.
NY Fed — Liberty Street Economics ·Jun 1NY Fed: Many Americans struggle to afford food even as economy grows
A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that large numbers of Americans are experiencing serious financial hardship and difficulty affording enough food, even while the broader economy has continued to expand. The report highlights a growing split between higher-income households, which are generally doing well and spending freely, and lower-income households, which are cutting back and under significant strain. This divide matters for the wider economy because consumer spending (meaning the total amount of money ordinary people spend on goods and services) is the single biggest driver of U.S. economic growth, and when a large portion of the population cannot afford basics, their reduced spending can slow that growth and make the overall economic picture less stable. Uneven financial stress across income groups also complicates decisions by the Federal Reserve about interest rates, since raising rates to fight inflation can make borrowing more expensive and push already-stretched households into deeper difficulty.
NY Fed — Liberty Street Economics ·May 27Americans pulled far less cash out of their homes in mid-2024
In the third quarter of 2024, homeowners sharply reduced how much money they were borrowing against the value of their homes, a practice sometimes called equity extraction, meaning taking out loans that use rising home values as collateral to get cash. This matters because when people borrow against their homes, they often spend that money on goods and services, which supports jobs and economic growth broadly. With mortgage rates (the interest rate on a home loan) still high, borrowing against home equity has become much more expensive, so homeowners are tapping that source of spending far less than they did during the mid-2000s housing bubble. Less of this kind of borrowing generally means less consumer spending, which can slow the overall economy.
Calculated Risk ·Jan 9