Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 11:00 PM
Original source
VoxEU — CEPR
MacroLab briefing generated by AI for informational purposes. Original reporting by VoxEU — CEPR. Not financial advice.
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In August 2025, the U.S. government fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency responsible for measuring unemployment, inflation, and other key economic numbers. The dismissal came amid claims that the agency's data had been altered or manipulated. This triggered immediate concern about whether the official economic statistics Americans rely on to understand inflation, job growth, and wage trends are accurate.
Official economic statistics drive nearly every important financial decision in the country. When the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise or lower interest rates, it looks at jobs data and inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Workers and employers use these figures to negotiate wages. Investors use them to decide where to put their money. If people lose trust in these numbers and suspect they've been tampered with, uncertainty spreads through the economy like a ripple. That uncertainty itself can hurt borrowing costs (banks charge more when they're unsure about economic conditions), slow hiring, and make people and businesses more cautious about spending and investing. The research cited shows that past episodes of policy uncertainty (when people don't know what the government will do next) have concrete negative effects on economic growth and employment.
Watch whether trust in official statistics bounces back or continues to erode. Specific signs to track: Do economists and investors start relying more on private surveys and alternative data sources instead of government numbers? Do long term interest rates (the cost of borrowing for mortgages or business loans) start rising as lenders demand more compensation for uncertainty? Do business investment and hiring plans get downgraded in coming months? And most directly, does the government restore public confidence by appointing a respected new leader and demonstrating the agency's data remains sound?