Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 11:00 PM
Original source
VoxEU — CEPR
MacroLab briefing generated by AI for informational purposes. Original reporting by VoxEU — CEPR. Not financial advice.
★ Watchlist
Sign in to use your watchlist.
Researchers at VoxEU/CEPR have created a new monthly measurement tool called the Trade Policy Activity Index that tracks how governments around the world are changing their trade policies. The index covers 197 countries and goes back to 2008, right after the financial crisis. Instead of looking at just one type of policy change (like tariffs on steel or restrictions on one product), the index combines information from many different kinds of trade policy actions across all these countries into a single number that shows overall global activity. The researchers used statistical methods to find the common patterns hiding in all this diverse data. The index shows clear spikes, or sudden jumps, in 2018 and 2019 (when trade tensions escalated, especially between the United States and China) and again in 2025.
Trade policy affects the prices you pay for imported goods, from clothes and electronics to car parts and food. When governments raise tariffs (taxes on imports), those costs get passed to consumers. Trade policy also shapes jobs, both directly in industries that rely on imports and exports, and indirectly through supply chains. When policy becomes chaotic or protectionist, companies become uncertain about their costs and plans, so they may freeze hiring or pause investments. A reliable monthly tracker of global trade policy moves helps investors, businesses, and policymakers spot trends early. It can show whether the world is moving toward protectionism (countries sheltering their own industries) or openness, which has real effects on growth, inflation, and employment.
Look for whether the index keeps climbing in coming months or if it falls back down. A sustained high reading would signal an escalating global trade war, with more countries imposing new restrictions. A decline would suggest tensions are easing. Pay attention to whether the index moves happen symmetrically (many countries doing similar things) or asymmetrically (one or two major powers acting while others stay put). Also watch what kinds of policies are driving the index: are they broad tariff increases, or targeted restrictions on specific sectors like semiconductors or batteries? The more the index rises and the more types of countries and sectors involved, the more likely it will ripple through global supply chains and affect everyday prices and job markets.