Temporary Help Services

Employment in temporary staffing agencies — a leading indicator for permanent hiring since firms add temps before committing to full-time headcount. Sustained YoY declines in temp help have historically preceded US recessions by 6–12 months, making this a reliable early warning signal.

Source: Federal Reserve (FRED), accessed via ALFRED (Archival FRED). ALFRED archives each data point exactly as it was first published on release day — before any revision by the reporting agency. The figures shown here are what investors, traders, and policymakers were actually looking at when the data came out. Economic releases like payrolls, GDP, and inflation are often revised significantly in subsequent months; ALFRED lets you see the real-time picture.