Natural Rate of Unemployment

The CBO's estimate of the noncyclical (structural) unemployment rate — the floor below which further labor market tightening generates accelerating inflation rather than real employment gains. When actual unemployment falls well below NROU, the Fed faces maximum inflationary pressure. When it rises above NROU, labor market slack gives the Fed room to cut rates without reigniting inflation.

Source: Federal Reserve (FRED), accessed via FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). This series is not subject to revision — the reading on any given date is the final, definitive figure. FRED always delivers the latest available data, which is identical to the initial release for these series.