Hiring Rate

Total hires as a percentage of total employment from the BLS JOLTS survey. The hiring rate measures labor market churn — a high rate signals employers are confidently adding staff; a falling rate, even before layoffs rise, is an early warning that the labor market is cooling. The 2022–23 cycle saw the hiring rate fall sharply before initial claims moved, making it one of the earliest leading indicators of labor market deceleration.

Source: Federal Reserve (FRED), accessed via ALFRED (Archival FRED). ALFRED archives each data point exactly as it was first published on release day — before any revision by the reporting agency. The figures shown here are what investors, traders, and policymakers were actually looking at when the data came out. Economic releases like payrolls, GDP, and inflation are often revised significantly in subsequent months; ALFRED lets you see the real-time picture.