Yield Curve (10Y–2Y)

10-Year Treasury yield minus 2-Year Treasury yield — the most widely quoted yield curve spread. Inversion (negative reading) signals bond markets expect the Fed to eventually cut rates because growth will weaken. Historically, recessions arrive 12–24 months after initial inversion, typically as the curve re-steepens via rate cuts.

This indicator is computed by MacroLab from two FRED series: DGS10 minus DGS2. Both input series are sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.