Yield Curve (10Y–1Y)

10-Year Treasury yield minus 1-Year Treasury yield — an alternative inversion measure capturing both the near-term Fed path (1Y) and long-run growth/inflation expectations (10Y). Historically re-steepens 6–12 months before a recession materialises. A deeply negative reading means the market expects significantly lower rates ahead — either because inflation will fall or because growth will weaken enough to force Fed cuts.

This indicator is computed by MacroLab from two FRED series: DGS10 minus DGS1. Both input series are sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.