Real 3-Month T-Bill Rate

3-Month T-Bill rate minus year-over-year CPI inflation — the real short-term rate facing money-market investors. A real 3M rate above +2% has historically signalled restrictive conditions sufficient to slow credit growth. Deeply negative readings (2020–22) function as a tax on cash savers and subsidy to leveraged borrowers.

This indicator is computed by MacroLab from two FRED series: DTB3 minus CPIAUCSL (YoY). Both input series are sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.