Dual-Mandate Gap

Unemployment rate minus year-over-year CPI inflation — a single-number summary of the Fed's dual mandate tension. A large positive value means unemployment is high and inflation low: maximum room for easing. A large negative value means the Fed faces a stagflation dilemma with no easy policy response. The 2021–22 episode saw this gap collapse to a record -7pp, forcing the most aggressive hiking cycle in 40 years.

This indicator is computed by MacroLab from two FRED series: UNRATE minus CPIAUCSL (YoY). Both input series are sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.