Business Debt (% GDP)

Nonfinancial corporate debt securities and loans as a percentage of GDP (Federal Reserve Z.1). US corporate leverage expanded significantly in the 2010–2020 era of near-zero rates. With the cost of debt now 3–4× higher, refinancing the upcoming debt maturity wall is a major drag on future earnings and a potential source of defaults if growth disappoints. Peak corporate debt/GDP historically precedes credit cycle downturns by 1–2 years.

This indicator is computed by MacroLab from two FRED series: BCNSDODNS divided by GDP, scaled by ÷ 10. Both input series are sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.